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LDLC ASVEL vs Milan prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, January 14

Thu, Jan 14 · 2:30 PM ETUNIPOL FORUM
32% win ASVwin MIL 68%
FavoriteMIL
Projected margin5.3
Projected total173
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Armani Olimpia Milan (1-7) host LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (3-5) on Thursday, January 14 at 2:30 PM ET at UNIPOL FORUM in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Armani Olimpia Milan a 68% chance to win and projects a 84-89 score (LDLC ASVEL – Milan), about 173 total points. This season, Armani Olimpia Milan are 1-3 at home and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Armani Olimpia Milan and 3-5 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (current streaks: Milan L6, LDLC ASVEL W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Milan, but LDLC ASVEL has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Milan 89 – 84 LDLC ASVEL, a margin of about 5.3 points in favor of Milan and a total around 173 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Milan
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -4.1 / ASV -6.2 per game
+2.1
Home-court advantageMilan at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Milan
+5.3

Scenarios

Milan win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ASVMIL
83.0
Points scored / game
84.3
90.3
Points allowed / game
89.1
-6.2
Adjusted margin / game
-4.1
38 %
Win %
13 %
2
Home wins
1
1
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ASV
WPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade82-75LZalgiris Kaunas85-105LReal Madrid92-111LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade82-84WParis Basketball98-96
MIL
LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens75-80LFC Barcelona81-89LDubai Basketball97-101LReal Madrid89-98LMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv79-97

Team comparison

ASVMIL
3-5Record1-7
83.0Points scored / game84.3
90.3Points allowed / game89.1
-6.2Adjusted margin / game-4.1
W1Current streakL6
3-5Last 10 games1-7
1-3 roadHome / road record1-3 home
8-30 (-7.3)Last season17-21 (-1.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.