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Anadolu Efes vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, January 12

Tue, Jan 12 · 2:30 PM ETVIRTUS ARENA
36% win EFSwin VIR 64%
FavoriteVIR
Projected margin4.1
Projected total169
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Virtus Bologna (4-4) host Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) on Tuesday, January 12 at 2:30 PM ET at VIRTUS ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Virtus Bologna a 64% chance to win and projects a 83-87 score (Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna), about 169 total points. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-1 at home and Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 1-4 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Virtus Bologna and 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L2, Anadolu Efes L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Virtus Bologna is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Virtus Bologna 87 – 83 Anadolu Efes, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of Virtus Bologna and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Virtus Bologna
Team strength (adjusted point differential)VIR -3.0 / EFS -3.9 per game
+0.9
Home-court advantageVirtus Bologna at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Virtus Bologna
+4.1

Scenarios

Virtus Bologna win by 10+
30%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
Anadolu Efes win by 10+
11%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

EFSVIR
81.9
Points scored / game
83.4
86.4
Points allowed / game
86.9
-3.9
Adjusted margin / game
-3.0
38 %
Win %
50 %
2
Home wins
2
1
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89
VIR
LZalgiris Kaunas74-91LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87

Team comparison

EFSVIR
3-5Record4-4
81.9Points scored / game83.4
86.4Points allowed / game86.9
-3.9Adjusted margin / game-3.0
L1Current streakL2
3-5Last 10 games4-4
1-4 roadHome / road record2-1 home
12-26 (-4.2)Last season14-24 (-4.6)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.