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Virtus Bologna vs Anadolu Efes prediction EuroLeague · Friday, November 13

Fri, Nov 13 · 12:30 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
42% win VIRwin EFS 58%
FavoriteEFS
Projected margin2.3
Projected total169
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) host Virtus Bologna (4-4) on Friday, November 13 at 12:30 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Anadolu Efes Istanbul a 58% chance to win and projects a 84-86 score (Virtus Bologna – Anadolu Efes), about 169 total points. This season, Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 2-1 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul and 4-4 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Anadolu Efes L1, Virtus Bologna L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 33% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Anadolu Efes 86 – 84 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of Anadolu Efes and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Anadolu Efes
Team strength (adjusted point differential)EFS -3.9 / VIR -3.0 per game
-0.9
Home-court advantageAnadolu Efes at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Anadolu Efes
+2.3

Scenarios

Anadolu Efes win by 10+
25%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Virtus Bologna win by 10+
14%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VIREFS
83.4
Points scored / game
81.9
86.9
Points allowed / game
86.4
-3.0
Adjusted margin / game
-3.9
50 %
Win %
38 %
2
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VIR
LZalgiris Kaunas74-91LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89

Team comparison

VIREFS
4-4Record3-5
83.4Points scored / game81.9
86.9Points allowed / game86.4
-3.0Adjusted margin / game-3.9
L2Current streakL1
4-4Last 10 games3-5
2-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
14-24 (-4.6)Last season12-26 (-4.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.