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Besiktas vs Maccabi prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, September 30

FinalALEKSANDAR NIKOLIC HALL
48% win BJKwin MTA 52%
FavoriteMTA
Projected margin0.5
Projected total175
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (0-1) host Besiktas Istanbul (0-1) on Wednesday, September 30 at 2:05 PM ET at ALEKSANDAR NIKOLIC HALL in EuroLeague action. Final score: Besiktas 109 – Maccabi 93. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv a 52% chance to win: prediction missed. Since the start of the season: 0-1 for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv and 0-1 for Besiktas Istanbul (current streaks: Maccabi L1, Besiktas L1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Maccabi 88 – 87 Besiktas, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of Maccabi and a total around 175 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Besiktas needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Maccabi's offense (88.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Besiktas' defense allows clearly fewer points (85.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Maccabi
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MTA -2.9 / BJK -0.2 per game
-2.7
Home-court advantageMaccabi at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Maccabi
+0.5

Scenarios

Maccabi win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Besiktas win by 10+
18%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BJKMTA
85.1
Points scored / game
88.3
85.3
Points allowed / game
91.7
-0.2
Adjusted margin / game
-2.9
0 %
Win %
0 %
0
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BJK
LValencia Basket94-96
MTA
LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne74-84

Team comparison

BJKMTA
0-1Record0-1
85.1Points scored / game88.3
85.3Points allowed / game91.7
-0.2Adjusted margin / game-2.9
L1Current streakL1
0-1Last 10 games0-1
0-0 roadHome / road record0-0 home
–Last season18-20 (-2.5)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.