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Hapoel TLV vs Crvena Zvezda prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, September 29

FinalBELGRADE ARENA
42% win HTAwin CZV 58%
FavoriteCZV
Projected margin2.2
Projected total172
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade (0-1) host Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (0-1) on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:00 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Hapoel TLV 81 – Crvena Zvezda 80. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade a 58% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade are 0-1 at home. Since the start of the season: 0-1 for Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade and 0-1 for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (current streaks: Crvena Zvezda L1, Hapoel TLV L1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Crvena Zvezda 87 – 85 Hapoel TLV, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of Crvena Zvezda and a total around 172 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Hapoel TLV needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Crvena Zvezda
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CZV +0.2 / HTA +1.3 per game
-1.0
Home-court advantageCrvena Zvezda at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Crvena Zvezda
+2.2

Scenarios

Crvena Zvezda win by 10+
25%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Hapoel TLV win by 10+
14%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

HTACZV
86.9
Points scored / game
86.0
85.5
Points allowed / game
85.7
1.3
Adjusted margin / game
0.2
0 %
Win %
0 %
0
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
HTA
LFC Bayern Munich84-86
CZV
LZalgiris Kaunas77-83

Team comparison

HTACZV
0-1Record0-1
86.9Points scored / game86.0
85.5Points allowed / game85.7
+1.3Adjusted margin / game+0.2
L1Current streakL1
0-1Last 10 games0-1
0-0 roadHome / road record0-1 home
24-18 (+1.9)Last season21-18 (+1.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.