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Baskonia vs Partizan prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 2:45 PM ETBELGRADE ARENA
27% win KBAwin PAR 73%
FavoritePAR
Projected margin7.1
Projected total171
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (4-4) host Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) on Wednesday, November 11 at 2:45 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade a 73% chance to win and projects a 82-89 score (Baskonia – Partizan), about 171 total points. This season, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade are 2-1 at home and Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade and 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (current streaks: Partizan L1, Baskonia L5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

Partizan starts with a clear edge. The model projects Partizan 89 – 82 Baskonia, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of Partizan and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Baskonia's offense (86.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Partizan's defense allows clearly fewer points (83.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Partizan
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PAR -2.6 / KBA -6.5 per game
+3.9
Home-court advantagePartizan at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Partizan
+7.1

Scenarios

Partizan win by 10+
40%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Baskonia win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

KBAPAR
86.0
Points scored / game
79.9
93.6
Points allowed / game
83.0
-6.5
Adjusted margin / game
-2.6
13 %
Win %
50 %
1
Home wins
2
0
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
KBA
LReal Madrid86-104LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens79-85LVirtus Bologna78-86LDubai Basketball79-93LBesiktas Istanbul84-92
PAR
LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne75-82WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade85-82LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul65-74LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens55-72LReal Madrid76-86

Team comparison

KBAPAR
1-7Record4-4
86.0Points scored / game79.9
93.6Points allowed / game83.0
-6.5Adjusted margin / game-2.6
L5Current streakL1
1-7Last 10 games4-4
0-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
13-25 (-4.7)Last season16-22 (-4.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.