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Zalgiris vs Crvena Zvezda prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, September 24

FinalBELGRADE ARENA
47% win ZALwin CZV 53%
FavoriteCZV
Projected margin0.9
Projected total172
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade host Zalgiris Kaunas on Thursday, September 24 at 2:00 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Zalgiris 83 – Crvena Zvezda 77. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade a 53% chance to win: prediction missed.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Crvena Zvezda 86 – 85 Zalgiris, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of Crvena Zvezda and a total around 172 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Zalgiris needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Crvena Zvezda
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CZV +0.9 / ZAL +3.2 per game
-2.3
Home-court advantageCrvena Zvezda at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Crvena Zvezda
+0.9

Scenarios

Crvena Zvezda win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Zalgiris win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ZALCZV
87.0
Points scored / game
87.2
83.2
Points allowed / game
86.1
3.2
Adjusted margin / game
0.9

Early season: the numbers also lean on last season.

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ZAL
No games played yet.
CZV
No games played yet.

Team comparison

ZALCZV
0-0Record0-0
87.0Points scored / game87.2
83.2Points allowed / game86.1
+3.2Adjusted margin / game+0.9
–Current streak–
–Last 10 games–
–Home / road record–
24-18 (+3.8)Last season21-18 (+1.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.