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Kings vs Clippers prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 8:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · ClipperVision

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

106-118

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

17% win SACwin LAC 83%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin12.0

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Sunday, April 11 at 8:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 83% chance to win and projects a 106-118 score (Kings – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Clippers L3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers) and Max Strus (Clippers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Clippers start with a clear edge. The model projects Clippers 118 – 106 Kings, a margin of about 12.0 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+0.4 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / SAC -10.1 per game

+10.6

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Clippers

+12.0

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

56%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACLAC

110.2

Points scored / game

112.0

122.1

Points allowed / game

111.5

44.5 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

30.0 %

3-point %

39.0 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

73.1 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

40.8

22.8

Assists / game

25.0

6.8

Steals / game

12.5

2.5

Blocks / game

4.5

14.3

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

LAC lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 17% · LAC 83%

ESPN BPI

SAC 27% · LAC 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		LAC
0-4	Record	1-3
110.2	Points scored / game	112.0
122.1	Points allowed / game	111.5
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
L4	Current streak	L3
0-4	Last 10 games	1-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.