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Pistons vs Bulls prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · away
Projected score
121-109
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · home
84% win DETwin CHI 16%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin12.6
Projected total230
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Friday, April 2 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 84% chance to win and projects a 121-109 score (Pistons – Bulls), about 230 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Bulls L3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Bulls 109 – 121 Pistons, a margin of about 12.6 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / DET +6.5 per game
-13.7
Home-court advantageBulls at home
+2.3
InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Bulls
-12.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+
4%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
19%
Pistons win by 10+
58%

Stat comparison Current season

DETCHI
115.4
Points scored / game
115.6
107.8
Points allowed / game
124.1
45.9 %
Field goal %
42.1 %
37.9 %
3-point %
27.6 %
36.4
3-pointers attempted / game
42.0
74.4 %
Free throw %
78.6 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
44.8
27.0
Assists / game
24.4
8.0
Steals / game
9.0
7.2
Blocks / game
4.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
17.8

Players to watch

Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Dec 26DETupcomingCHIFeb 2CHIupcomingDETMar 1CHIupcomingDETApr 2DETthis gameCHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
DET 84% · CHI 16%
ESPN BPI
DET 77% · CHI 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DETCHI
4-1Record1-4
115.4Points scored / game115.6
107.8Points allowed / game124.1
+6.5Adjusted margin / game-7.2
W1Current streakL3
4-1Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
60-22 (+8.2)Last season31-51 (-5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.