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Lakers vs Thunder prediction NBA · Thursday, April 1

Thu, Apr 1 · 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
110-115
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · home
37% win LALwin OKC 63%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin4.1
Projected total225
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Thursday, April 1 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 63% chance to win and projects a 110-115 score (Lakers – Thunder), about 225 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Thunder L1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Thunder 115 – 110 Lakers, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / LAL +3.5 per game
+4.1
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable
-2.4
Expected marginfor Thunder
+4.1

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Lakers win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

LALOKC
118.4
Points scored / game
115.8
114.3
Points allowed / game
106.9
52.9 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
39.2 %
3-point %
30.9 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
79.1 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
46.0
24.0
Assists / game
22.0
10.8
Steals / game
8.4
5.8
Blocks / game
6.8
16.6
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 26OKCupcomingLALMar 6OKCupcomingLALApr 1LALthis gameOKC

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 37% · OKC 63%
ESPN BPI
LAL 32% · OKC 68%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALOKC
4-1Record4-1
118.4Points scored / game115.8
114.3Points allowed / game106.9
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+7.6
W1Current streakL1
4-1Last 10 games4-1
2-0 roadHome / road record3-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season64-18 (+11.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.