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Lakers vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 25

Thu, Mar 25 · 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN CLE

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

115-118

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

40% win LALwin CLE 60%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin3.1

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Thursday, March 25 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-118 score (Lakers – Cavaliers), about 233 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Cavaliers 118 – 115 Lakers, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / LAL +3.5 per game

-0.4

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+3.1

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Lakers win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

LALCLE

118.4

Points scored / game

119.6

114.3

Points allowed / game

116.0

52.9 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

39.2 %

3-point %

36.7 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

79.1 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

47.0

24.0

Assists / game

26.3

10.8

Steals / game

8.8

5.8

Blocks / game

7.5

16.6

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 40% · CLE 60%

ESPN BPI

LAL 44% · CLE 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		CLE
4-1	Record	3-1
118.4	Points scored / game	119.6
114.3	Points allowed / game	116.0
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.