Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Cavaliers vs Kings prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14

Sun, Mar 14 · 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

123-109

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

86% win CLEwin SAC 14%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin13.6

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Sunday, March 14 at 6:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 86% chance to win and projects a 123-109 score (Cavaliers – Kings), about 232 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Kings L4, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Kings 109 – 123 Cavaliers, a margin of about 13.6 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / CLE +3.0 per game

-13.2

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Kings

-13.6

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

18%

Cavaliers win by 10+

61%

Stat comparison Current season

CLESAC

119.6

Points scored / game

110.2

116.0

Points allowed / game

122.1

46.8 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

36.7 %

3-point %

30.0 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

79.3 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

41.5

26.3

Assists / game

22.8

8.8

Steals / game

6.8

7.5

Blocks / game

2.5

17.3

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 86% · SAC 14%

ESPN BPI

CLE 82% · SAC 18%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		SAC
3-1	Record	0-4
119.6	Points scored / game	110.2
116.0	Points allowed / game	122.1
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W3	Current streak	L4
3-1	Last 10 games	0-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.