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Spurs vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14

Sun, Mar 14 · 2:30 PM ETPaycom Center · ABC

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-113

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

48% win SAwin OKC 52%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin0.6

Projected total224

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, March 14 at 2:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 52% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Spurs – Thunder), about 224 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Thunder L1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Thunder 113 – 112 Spurs, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / SA +6.6 per game

+1.0

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Thunder

+0.6

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

SAOKC

118.9

Points scored / game

115.8

111.1

Points allowed / game

106.9

46.0 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

78.3 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

46.0

28.2

Assists / game

22.0

9.8

Steals / game

8.4

6.6

Blocks / game

6.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

OKC lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 48% · OKC 52%

ESPN BPI

SA 47% · OKC 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		OKC
3-2	Record	4-1
118.9	Points scored / game	115.8
111.1	Points allowed / game	106.9
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W3	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.