Cavaliers vs Clippers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11
At a glance
The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Thursday, March 11 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 67% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Cavaliers – Clippers), about 226 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Clippers L3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Clippers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Cavaliers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Clippers 110 – 116 Cavaliers, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLELAC
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsClippers
Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / gameDarius GarlandG · #106.5assists
Rui HachimuraF · #286.0reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111LAC
122-110W
121-96L
125-117L
108-101L103-87
LAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 112.0 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 111.5 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.4 |
| W3 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-3 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 42-40 (+1.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Clippers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.