Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Suns vs Bulls prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

118-113

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

65% win PHXwin CHI 35%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin4.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Thursday, March 11 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 65% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Suns – Bulls), about 231 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Bulls L3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Suns, but the Bulls have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bulls 113 – 118 Suns, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / PHX -1.4 per game

-5.7

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Bulls

-4.7

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Suns win by 10+

34%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXCHI

111.9

Points scored / game

115.6

113.6

Points allowed / game

124.1

45.6 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

31.9 %

3-point %

27.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

73.9 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.3

Assists / game

24.4

8.7

Steals / game

9.0

5.3

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 65% · CHI 35%

ESPN BPI

PHX 60% · CHI 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		CHI
1-2	Record	1-4
111.9	Points scored / game	115.6
113.6	Points allowed / game	124.1
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L1	Current streak	L3
1-2	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.