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Raptors vs Heat prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2

Tue, Mar 2 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-114

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

56% win TORwin MIA 44%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin1.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, March 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 56% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Raptors – Heat), about 230 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Heat W1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 114 – 116 Raptors, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / TOR +5.0 per game

-5.5

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Heat

-1.8

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Raptors win by 10+

26%

Stat comparison Current season

TORMIA

115.4

Points scored / game

118.6

109.5

Points allowed / game

119.2

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.4 %

3-point %

31.7 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.0 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

42.8

27.3

Assists / game

27.0

14.3

Steals / game

8.4

5.5

Blocks / game

5.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 56% · MIA 44%

ESPN BPI

TOR 59% · MIA 42%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		MIA
3-1	Record	1-4
115.4	Points scored / game	118.6
109.5	Points allowed / game	119.2
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W1	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.