Spurs vs Magic prediction NBA · Saturday, February 13
At a glance
The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Saturday, February 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 81% chance to win and projects a 118-107 score (Spurs – Magic), about 226 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Magic L1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Magic played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic) and Noah Penda (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Magic 107 – 118 Spurs, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SAORL
Players to watch
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsMagic
Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / gameFranz WagnerF · #226.0assists
Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0reboundsRecent form
SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OTORL
136-115L
132-125L
115-93W
111-102L
129-99
ORL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SA | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 113.6 |
| 111.1 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.3 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 1-3 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 62-20 (+8.3) | Last season | 45-37 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Magic
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.