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Heat vs Magic prediction NBA · Friday, February 12

Fri, Feb 12 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-114

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

61% win MIAwin ORL 39%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin3.5

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Friday, February 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 61% chance to win and projects a 118-114 score (Heat – Magic), about 232 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Magic L1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic) and Izaiyah Nelson (Magic). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Magic have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Magic 114 – 118 Heat, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / MIA -0.6 per game

-1.7

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-4.2

Expected marginfor Magic

-3.5

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Heat win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAORL

118.6

Points scored / game

113.6

119.2

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

31.7 %

3-point %

31.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

41.3

27.0

Assists / game

26.0

8.4

Steals / game

7.8

5.4

Blocks / game

4.5

14.2

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 61% · ORL 39%

ESPN BPI

MIA 49% · ORL 51%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		ORL
1-4	Record	1-3
118.6	Points scored / game	113.6
119.2	Points allowed / game	116.2
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.