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Magic vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 10

Wed, Feb 10 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

111-118

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

28% win ORLwin MEM 72%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin7.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Wednesday, February 10 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 72% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Magic – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic) and Izaiyah Nelson (Magic). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 118 – 111 Magic, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / ORL -2.3 per game

+0.5

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+4.5

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+7.3

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Magic win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

ORLMEM

113.6

Points scored / game

115.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.3

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.4 %

3-point %

39.1 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

75.0 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

50.0

26.0

Assists / game

25.0

7.8

Steals / game

6.3

4.5

Blocks / game

6.3

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 28% · MEM 72%

ESPN BPI

ORL 51% · MEM 49%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

ORL		MEM
1-3	Record	4-0
113.6	Points scored / game	115.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.3
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L1	Current streak	W4
1-3	Last 10 games	4-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.