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Heat vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 3:00 PM ETTarget Center · Prime Video

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-120

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

30% win MIAwin MIN 70%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin6.6

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Saturday, February 6 at 3:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 70% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Heat – Timberwolves), about 234 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Heat have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 120 – 114 Heat, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / MIA -0.6 per game

+5.7

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-1.5

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+6.6

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Heat win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MIAMIN

118.6

Points scored / game

118.7

119.2

Points allowed / game

112.6

45.3 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

31.7 %

3-point %

38.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

71.7 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

51.6

27.0

Assists / game

27.0

8.4

Steals / game

9.2

5.4

Blocks / game

4.4

14.2

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

MIN lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 30% · MIN 70%

ESPN BPI

MIA 29% · MIN 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		MIN
1-4	Record	3-2
118.6	Points scored / game	118.7
119.2	Points allowed / game	112.6
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.