Cavaliers vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Thursday, February 4
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Thursday, February 4 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 58% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Cavaliers – Trail Blazers), about 232 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 115 Cavaliers, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEPOR
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129
CLE
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W3 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.