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Clippers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27

Wed, Jan 27 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

105-117

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

17% win LACwin BOS 83%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin12.1

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Wednesday, January 27 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 83% chance to win and projects a 105-117 score (Clippers – Celtics), about 222 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Celtics W3, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 117 – 105 Clippers, a margin of about 12.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / LAC +0.4 per game

+6.2

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Celtics

+12.1

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

57%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Clippers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

LACBOS

112.0

Points scored / game

116.1

111.5

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

39.0 %

3-point %

38.6 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

78.6 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.0

Assists / game

27.8

12.5

Steals / game

9.0

4.5

Blocks / game

3.8

23.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 17% · BOS 83%

ESPN BPI

LAC 20% · BOS 80%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		BOS
1-3	Record	3-1
112.0	Points scored / game	116.1
111.5	Points allowed / game	108.3
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
1-3	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.