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Cavaliers vs Nets prediction NBA · Thursday, January 21

Thu, Jan 21 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

120-108

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

83% win CLEwin BKN 17%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin11.9

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Thursday, January 21 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 83% chance to win and projects a 120-108 score (Cavaliers – Nets), about 228 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Nets L4, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Nets 108 – 120 Cavaliers, a margin of about 11.9 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / CLE +3.0 per game

-11.5

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Nets

-11.9

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Cavaliers win by 10+

56%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEBKN

119.6

Points scored / game

108.0

116.0

Points allowed / game

117.9

46.8 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

36.7 %

3-point %

36.7 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

79.3 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

43.5

26.3

Assists / game

24.0

8.8

Steals / game

10.0

7.5

Blocks / game

4.0

17.3

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

CLE lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 83% · BKN 17%

ESPN BPI

CLE 77% · BKN 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		BKN
3-1	Record	0-4
119.6	Points scored / game	108.0
116.0	Points allowed / game	117.9
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W3	Current streak	L4
3-1	Last 10 games	0-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.