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Bulls vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 20

Wed, Jan 20 · 7:00 PM ETBarclays Center · ESPN, DAZN (YES)

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-116

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

39% win CHIwin BKN 61%

FavoriteBKN

Projected margin3.3

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Wednesday, January 20 at 7:00 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nets a 61% chance to win and projects a 113-116 score (Bulls – Nets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Nets L4, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nets 116 – 113 Bulls, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Nets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / CHI -7.2 per game

-1.3

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBulls played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+0.7

Expected marginfor Nets

+3.3

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Bulls win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIBKN

115.6

Points scored / game

108.0

124.1

Points allowed / game

117.9

42.1 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

27.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

78.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

43.5

24.4

Assists / game

24.0

9.0

Steals / game

10.0

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

17.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 39% · BKN 61%

ESPN BPI

CHI 40% · BKN 60%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		BKN
1-4	Record	0-4
115.6	Points scored / game	108.0
124.1	Points allowed / game	117.9
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L3	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.