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Cavaliers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, January 11

Mon, Jan 11 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN, DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-118

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

40% win CLEwin MIN 60%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin3.3

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Monday, January 11 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-118 score (Cavaliers – Timberwolves), about 232 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Cavaliers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 115 Cavaliers, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / CLE +3.0 per game

+2.1

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+3.3

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Cavaliers win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEMIN

119.6

Points scored / game

118.7

116.0

Points allowed / game

112.6

46.8 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

36.7 %

3-point %

38.4 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

79.3 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

26.3

Assists / game

27.0

8.8

Steals / game

9.2

7.5

Blocks / game

4.4

17.3

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

CLE lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 40% · MIN 60%

ESPN BPI

CLE 36% · MIN 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		MIN
3-1	Record	3-2
119.6	Points scored / game	118.7
116.0	Points allowed / game	112.6
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W3	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.