Magic vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, January 8
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Friday, January 8 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 62% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Magic – Pelicans), about 229 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Magic played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Dejounte Murray (Pelicans)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Pelicans are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 116 – 112 Magic, a margin of about 3.9 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
ORLNO
Players to watch
Magic
Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / gameFranz WagnerF · #226.0assists
Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
ORL
136-115L
132-125L
115-93W
111-102L
129-99NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
ORL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| ORL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| 113.6 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| -2.3 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 1-3 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 45-37 (+0.6) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Magic
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.