Celtics vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Saturday, January 2 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 53% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Celtics – Trail Blazers), about 226 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Trail Blazers 112 – 113 Celtics, a margin of about 1.0 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSPOR
Players to watch
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
BOS
125-120 OTL
121-113W
107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OTPOR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| BOS | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 108.3 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W3 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 56-26 (+7.7) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.