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Magic vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31

Thu, Dec 31 · 3:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

115-114

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

51% win ORLwin IND 49%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin0.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Thursday, December 31 at 3:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 51% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Magic – Pacers), about 227 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Pacers L2, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Ivica Zubac (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pacers 114 – 115 Magic, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / ORL -2.3 per game

-2.5

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Pacers

-0.2

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Magic win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLIND

113.6

Points scored / game

113.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

118.8

44.2 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

31.4 %

3-point %

31.2 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

75.0 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

44.0

26.0

Assists / game

29.4

7.8

Steals / game

6.4

4.5

Blocks / game

4.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 51% · IND 49%

ESPN BPI

ORL 40% · IND 60%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

ORL		IND
1-3	Record	2-3
113.6	Points scored / game	113.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	118.8
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.