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Spurs vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

120-107

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

85% win SAwin BKN 15%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin12.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 85% chance to win and projects a 120-107 score (Spurs – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Nets L4, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Nets 107 – 120 Spurs, a margin of about 12.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / SA +6.6 per game

-15.1

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Nets

-12.8

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Spurs win by 10+

59%

Stat comparison Current season

SABKN

118.9

Points scored / game

108.0

111.1

Points allowed / game

117.9

46.0 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

78.3 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

43.5

28.2

Assists / game

24.0

9.8

Steals / game

10.0

6.6

Blocks / game

4.0

12.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 85% · BKN 15%

ESPN BPI

SA 85% · BKN 15%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		BKN
3-2	Record	0-4
118.9	Points scored / game	108.0
111.1	Points allowed / game	117.9
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W3	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.