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Pistons vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 22

Tue, Dec 22 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · NBC, KSBI, Thunder App

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

110-111

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

50% win DETwin OKC 50%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin0.1

Projected total221

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Tuesday, December 22 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 50% chance to win and projects a 110-111 score (Pistons – Thunder), about 221 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Thunder L1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Thunder 111 – 110 Pistons, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / DET +6.5 per game

+1.1

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Thunder

+0.1

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pistons win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

DETOKC

115.4

Points scored / game

115.8

107.8

Points allowed / game

106.9

45.9 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

37.9 %

3-point %

30.9 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

74.4 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

46.0

27.0

Assists / game

22.0

8.0

Steals / game

8.4

7.2

Blocks / game

6.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 50% · OKC 50%

ESPN BPI

DET 38% · OKC 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		OKC
4-1	Record	4-1
115.4	Points scored / game	115.8
107.8	Points allowed / game	106.9
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.