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Bucks vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16

Wed, Dec 16 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

107-121

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

14% win MILwin HOU 86%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin13.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Wednesday, December 16 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 86% chance to win and projects a 107-121 score (Bucks – Rockets), about 228 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Rockets W5, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 121 – 107 Bucks, a margin of about 13.3 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Marcus Smart or Steven Adams.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / MIL -6.4 per game

+13.1

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 2 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.1

Expected marginfor Rockets

+13.3

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

60%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

18%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILHOU

111.4

Points scored / game

117.5

119.0

Points allowed / game

109.7

44.9 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

34.0 %

3-point %

40.4 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

71.6 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

24.6

Assists / game

28.2

5.8

Steals / game

10.2

4.0

Blocks / game

6.0

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

HOU lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 14% · HOU 86%

ESPN BPI

MIL 14% · HOU 86%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		HOU
1-4	Record	5-0
111.4	Points scored / game	117.5
119.0	Points allowed / game	109.7
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L1	Current streak	W5
1-4	Last 10 games	5-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Rockets

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.