Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Spurs vs Bucks prediction NBA · Monday, November 30

Mon, Nov 30 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

118-110

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

72% win SAwin MIL 28%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin7.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Monday, November 30 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 72% chance to win and projects a 118-110 score (Spurs – Bucks), about 228 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Bucks L1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Bucks 110 – 118 Spurs, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / SA +6.6 per game

-13.1

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSpurs played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Bucks

-7.4

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Spurs win by 10+

42%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMIL

118.9

Points scored / game

111.4

111.1

Points allowed / game

119.0

46.0 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

78.3 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

49.8

28.2

Assists / game

24.6

9.8

Steals / game

5.8

6.6

Blocks / game

4.0

12.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 72% · MIL 28%

ESPN BPI

SA 85% · MIL 15%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		MIL
3-2	Record	1-4
118.9	Points scored / game	111.4
111.1	Points allowed / game	119.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W3	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.