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Clippers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Monday, November 23

Mon, Nov 23 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

106-116

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

21% win LACwin HOU 79%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin10.0

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Monday, November 23 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 79% chance to win and projects a 106-116 score (Clippers – Rockets), about 222 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Rockets W5, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Reed Sheppard (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 116 – 106 Clippers, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / LAC +0.4 per game

+6.3

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Rockets

+10.0

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

50%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Clippers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

LACHOU

112.0

Points scored / game

117.5

111.5

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.9 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

39.0 %

3-point %

40.4 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.0

Assists / game

28.2

12.5

Steals / game

10.2

4.5

Blocks / game

6.0

23.0

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 21% · HOU 79%

ESPN BPI

LAC 18% · HOU 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		HOU
1-3	Record	5-0
112.0	Points scored / game	117.5
111.5	Points allowed / game	109.7
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L3	Current streak	W5
1-3	Last 10 games	5-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.