Suns vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, November 23
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, November 23 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 56% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Suns – Pelicans), about 229 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pelicans 114 – 116 Suns, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHXNO
Players to watch
Suns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114NO
107-106L
123-120L120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
PHX
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHX | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 111.9 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 113.6 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| -1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 1-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 45-37 (+1.5) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Suns
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.