Trail Blazers vs Bucks prediction NBA · Thursday, November 19
At a glance
The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Thursday, November 19 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 68% chance to win and projects a 118-112 score (Trail Blazers – Bucks), about 229 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Bucks L1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Trail Blazers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 112 – 118 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Trail Blazers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORMIL
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsBucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / gameTyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129MIL
128-116L
132-125L
127-116W
110-102L
132-100
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 111.4 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 119.0 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.4 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 32-50 (-6.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Bucks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.