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Jazz vs Lakers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18

Wed, Nov 18 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · away
Projected score
110-123
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
14% win UTAHwin LAL 86%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin13.3
Projected total233
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, November 18 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 86% chance to win and projects a 110-123 score (Jazz – Lakers), about 233 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Lakers W1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers and the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup. The model projects Lakers 123 – 110 Jazz, a margin of about 13.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Lakers and the Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / UTAH -7.0 per game
+10.5
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable
+0.6
Expected marginfor Lakers
+13.3

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
60%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
18%
Jazz win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHLAL
116.1
Points scored / game
118.4
124.3
Points allowed / game
114.3
45.4 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
33.9 %
3-point %
39.2 %
34.8
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
76.6 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
38.0
26.8
Assists / game
24.0
5.0
Steals / game
10.8
6.4
Blocks / game
5.8
17.0
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

LAL lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 25LAL132 - 123UTAHNov 18UTAHthis gameLALNov 23UTAHupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
UTAH 14% · LAL 86%
ESPN BPI
UTAH 27% · LAL 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAHLAL
1-4Record4-1
116.1Points scored / game118.4
124.3Points allowed / game114.3
-7.0Adjusted margin / game+3.5
L3Current streakW1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.