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Magic vs Celtics prediction NBA · Monday, November 16

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ETTD Garden · NBCSN

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

105-118

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

15% win ORLwin BOS 85%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin13.2

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Monday, November 16 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 85% chance to win and projects a 105-118 score (Magic – Celtics), about 223 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Celtics W3, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 118 – 105 Magic, a margin of about 13.2 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / ORL -2.3 per game

+8.9

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Celtics

+13.2

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

60%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

18%

Magic win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

ORLBOS

113.6

Points scored / game

116.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

108.3

44.2 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

31.4 %

3-point %

38.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

75.0 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

44.3

26.0

Assists / game

27.8

7.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.5

Blocks / game

3.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 15% · BOS 85%

ESPN BPI

ORL 30% · BOS 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		BOS
1-3	Record	3-1
113.6	Points scored / game	116.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	108.3
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
1-3	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.