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Pistons vs Heat prediction NBA · Saturday, November 14

Sat, Nov 14 · 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · NBA TV

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

117-111

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

67% win DETwin MIA 33%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin5.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Saturday, November 14 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 67% chance to win and projects a 117-111 score (Pistons – Heat), about 228 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Heat W1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Heat 111 – 117 Pistons, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / DET +6.5 per game

-7.0

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Heat

-5.4

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Pistons win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

DETMIA

115.4

Points scored / game

118.6

107.8

Points allowed / game

119.2

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

37.9 %

3-point %

31.7 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

74.4 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

42.8

27.0

Assists / game

27.0

8.0

Steals / game

8.4

7.2

Blocks / game

5.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 67% · MIA 33%

ESPN BPI

DET 60% · MIA 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		MIA
4-1	Record	1-4
115.4	Points scored / game	118.6
107.8	Points allowed / game	119.2
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.