Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Wednesday, November 11 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 50% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Thunder – Trail Blazers), about 224 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers and the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 113 – 112 Thunder, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers and the Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPOR
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96POR
110-98L
128-118W124-83W128-120W
136-129Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| OKC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.