Magic vs Jazz prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11
At a glance
The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Wednesday, November 11 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 53% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Magic – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Jazz L3, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz and the Magic played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 115 – 116 Magic, a margin of about 1.0 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz and the Magic played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
ORLUTAH
Players to watch
Magic
Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / gameFranz WagnerF · #226.0assists
Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0reboundsJazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / gameKeyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0reboundsRecent form
ORL
136-115L
132-125L
115-93W
111-102L
129-99UTAH
123-103W
120-119L
132-123L110-105L
117-111 OT
ORL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| ORL | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 113.6 | Points scored / game | 116.1 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 124.3 |
| -2.3 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.0 |
| L1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 1-3 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-3 home |
| 45-37 (+0.6) | Last season | 22-60 (-8.4) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Magic
Injury report Jazz
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.