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Nets vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · DAZN (YES), GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

111-119

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

28% win BKNwin NO 72%

FavoriteNO

Projected margin7.2

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Wednesday, November 11 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 72% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Nets – Pelicans), about 230 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pelicans are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 119 – 111 Nets, a margin of about 7.2 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / BKN -8.4 per game

+4.3

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 1 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Pelicans

+7.2

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNNO

108.0

Points scored / game

115.7

117.9

Points allowed / game

120.5

42.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

36.7 %

3-point %

29.0 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

76.6 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

44.3

24.0

Assists / game

23.5

10.0

Steals / game

12.3

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

17.5

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 28% · NO 72%

ESPN BPI

BKN 40% · NO 60%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		NO
0-4	Record	0-4
108.0	Points scored / game	115.7
117.9	Points allowed / game	120.5
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
L4	Current streak	L4
0-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut

Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.