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Magic vs Kings prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 10

Tue, Nov 10 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

116-112

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

65% win ORLwin SAC 35%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin4.7

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Tuesday, November 10 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 65% chance to win and projects a 116-112 score (Magic – Kings), about 228 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Kings L4, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Dylan Cardwell (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Magic are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 112 – 116 Magic, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Magic's offense (113.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / ORL -2.3 per game

-7.9

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Kings

-4.7

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Magic win by 10+

34%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLSAC

113.6

Points scored / game

110.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

122.1

44.2 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

31.4 %

3-point %

30.0 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

75.0 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

41.5

26.0

Assists / game

22.8

7.8

Steals / game

6.8

4.5

Blocks / game

2.5

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 65% · SAC 35%

ESPN BPI

ORL 75% · SAC 25%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		SAC
1-3	Record	0-4
113.6	Points scored / game	110.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	122.1
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L1	Current streak	L4
1-3	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.