Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Heat vs Jazz prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 10

Tue, Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

122-115

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

71% win MIAwin UTAH 29%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin6.9

Projected total238

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Tuesday, November 10 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 71% chance to win and projects a 122-115 score (Heat – Jazz), about 238 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Jazz L3, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Jazz have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Jazz 115 – 122 Heat, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 238 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (119.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / MIA -0.6 per game

-6.5

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Jazz

-6.9

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Heat win by 10+

40%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAUTAH

118.6

Points scored / game

116.1

119.2

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

31.7 %

3-point %

33.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

71.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.0

Assists / game

26.8

8.4

Steals / game

5.0

5.4

Blocks / game

6.4

14.2

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 71% · UTAH 29%

ESPN BPI

MIA 57% · UTAH 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		UTAH
1-4	Record	1-4
118.6	Points scored / game	116.1
119.2	Points allowed / game	124.3
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.