Kings vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Thursday, October 29
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Thursday, October 29 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 77% chance to win and projects a 111-120 score (Kings – Pelicans), about 231 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Pelicans start with a clear edge. The model projects Pelicans 120 – 111 Kings, a margin of about 9.1 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACNO
Players to watch
Kings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
SAC
126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
SAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SAC | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 0-4 |
| 110.2 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| -10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L4 | Current streak | L4 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 22-60 (-10.0) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.