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Spurs vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 5:00 PM ETKaseya Center · NBC, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

118-113

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

66% win SAwin MIA 34%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin5.0

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Monday, February 15 at 5:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 66% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Spurs – Heat), about 231 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Heat W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Heat have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 113 – 118 Spurs, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / SA +6.6 per game

-7.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Heat

-5.0

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Spurs win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMIA

118.9

Points scored / game

118.6

111.1

Points allowed / game

119.2

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

31.7 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.3 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

42.8

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

8.4

6.6

Blocks / game

5.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 66% · MIA 34%

ESPN BPI

SA 70% · MIA 30%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		MIA
3-2	Record	1-4
118.9	Points scored / game	118.6
111.1	Points allowed / game	119.2
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W3	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.