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Rockets vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 7:30 PM ETFedExForum · NBCSN

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

116-113

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

60% win HOUwin MEM 40%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin3.1

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Monday, January 18 at 7:30 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 60% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Rockets – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Grizzlies 113 – 116 Rockets, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / HOU +6.7 per game

-8.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-3.1

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Rockets win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUMEM

117.5

Points scored / game

115.2

109.7

Points allowed / game

117.3

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

40.4 %

3-point %

39.1 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

84.7 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

28.2

Assists / game

25.0

10.2

Steals / game

6.3

6.0

Blocks / game

6.3

15.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 60% · MEM 40%

ESPN BPI

HOU 71% · MEM 29%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		MEM
5-0	Record	4-0
117.5	Points scored / game	115.2
109.7	Points allowed / game	117.3
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W5	Current streak	W4
5-0	Last 10 games	4-0
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.