Spurs vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, March 23
At a glance
The Miami Heat (38-33) host the San Antonio Spurs (53-19) on Monday, March 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 136 – Heat 111. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 51% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 23-13 at home and the Spurs are 25-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Heat and 9-1 for the Spurs (current streaks: Heat L4, Spurs W5).
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 116 – 117 Spurs, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SAMIA
Top performers
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #126pts / game
Dylan HarperG · #26assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #115reboundsHeat
Norman PowellG · #2421pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #246assists
Kel'el WareC · #97reboundsRecent form
SAMIA
MIA
Team comparison
| SA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 53-19 | Record | 38-33 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 112.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| +4.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.3 |
| W5 | Current streak | L4 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 25-12 road | Home / road record | 23-13 home |
| 34-48 (-2.8) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.