Thunder vs Wizards prediction NBA · Saturday, March 21
At a glance
The Washington Wizards (16-53) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (55-15) on Saturday, March 21 at 5:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 132 – Wizards 111. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 91% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Wizards are 11-25 at home and the Thunder are 26-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 0-10 for the Wizards and 10-0 for the Thunder (current streaks: Wizards L14, Thunder W10).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 107 – 124 Thunder, a margin of about 16.9 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-9.7 vs +9.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (118.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCWSH
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #240pts / game
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5510assistsIsaiah HartensteinC · #5520reboundsWizards
Bilal CoulibalyG · #021pts / game
Alex SarrC · #208assists
Tristan VukcevicF · #007reboundsRecent form
OKCWSH
WSH
Team comparison
| OKC | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 55-15 | Record | 16-53 |
| 118.8 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 107.5 | Points allowed / game | 123.2 |
| +9.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -9.7 |
| W10 | Current streak | L14 |
| 10-0 | Last 10 games | 0-10 |
| 26-8 road | Home / road record | 11-25 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 18-64 (-12.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Wizards
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.