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Magic vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 3

FinalPaycom Center · NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN FL, FanDuel SN OK
15% win ORLwin OKC 85%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin13.0
Projected total228
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (39-11) host the Orlando Magic (25-23) on Tuesday, February 3 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Magic 92 – Thunder 128. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 85% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 21-5 at home and the Magic are 10-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Thunder and 4-6 for the Magic (current streaks: Thunder W1, Magic L1).

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 120 – 107 Magic, a margin of about 13.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+10.5 vs -0.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (120.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +10.5 / ORL -0.1 per game
+10.7
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Thunder
+13.0

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
59%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
19%
Magic win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLOKC
113.5
Points scored / game
120.3
113.6
Points allowed / game
107.9
44.2 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
31.4 %
3-point %
30.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
75.0 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
41.3
Rebounds / game
46.0
26.0
Assists / game
22.0
7.8
Steals / game
8.4
4.5
Blocks / game
6.8
17.8
Turnovers / game
13.6

Top performers

Magic
Jalen SuggsG · #420pts / game
Jalen SuggsG · #46assists
Wendell Carter Jr.C · #347rebounds
Thunder
Isaiah JoeG · #1722pts / game
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5510assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #710rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ORL
No games played yet.
OKC
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

OKC lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

ORLOKC
25-23Record39-11
113.5Points scored / game120.3
113.6Points allowed / game107.9
-0.1Adjusted margin / game+10.5
L1Current streakW1
4-6Last 10 games6-4
10-14 roadHome / road record21-5 home
41-41 (-0.1)Last season68-14 (+12.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Orlando Magic Injury report Magic

No injuries reported.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.