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Heat vs Jazz prediction NBA · Saturday, January 24

FinalDelta Center · FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Miami Heat

24-22 · away

Final score

147-116

Projected: 122-117

Utah Jazz

15-31 · home

67% win MIAwin UTAH 33%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin5.6

Projected total239

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (15-30) host the Miami Heat (23-22) on Saturday, January 24 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 147 – Jazz 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 67% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Jazz are 10-13 at home and the Heat are 8-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Jazz and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Jazz L1, Heat L1).

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Jazz 117 – 122 Heat, a margin of about 5.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 239 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.2 / MIA +0.7 per game

-7.9

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Jazz

-5.6

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Heat win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAUTAH

117.5

Points scored / game

117.6

116.7

Points allowed / game

126.1

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

31.7 %

3-point %

33.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

71.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.0

Assists / game

26.8

8.4

Steals / game

5.0

5.4

Blocks / game

6.4

14.2

Turnovers / game

17.0

Top performers

Heat

Bam AdebayoC · #1326pts / game

Andrew WigginsF · #226assists

Bam AdebayoC · #1315rebounds

Jazz

Brice SensabaughF · #2823pts / game

Jusuf NurkicC · #3012assists

Jusuf NurkicC · #3010rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

No games played yet.

UTAH

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

MIA		UTAH
23-22	Record	15-30
117.5	Points scored / game	117.6
116.7	Points allowed / game	126.1
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L1	Current streak	L1
4-6	Last 10 games	3-7
8-15 road	Home / road record	10-13 home
37-45 (+0.6)	Last season	17-65 (-9.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Injury report Jazz

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.